Food Inflation: FG Targets 25 Million Tonnes of Grains to Crash Prices

By AgricNews Digest

The Federal Government is making its boldest move yet to fight food inflation and stabilize markets. It is targeting a massive expansion in grain production, with a plan to more than double annual output and flood the market with locally grown staples. The strategy is simple: produce more, import less, and let supply drive prices down.

Speaking at the launch of the Renewed Hope Smallholder Agricultural Financing Programme in Zaria, Kaduna State, the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, announced that government plans to raise annual grain output from the current 11 million tonnes to about 25 million tonnes.

The new target is anchored on a clear philosophy. According to Kyari, the goal is “reducing food inflation by increasing production, not by relying on imports.” With local production at the center, the administration is betting that higher volumes of rice, maize, and wheat will translate directly to lower prices on market shelves.

The plan puts smallholder farmers at the center of the equation. About 90% of Nigerian farmers cultivate less than one hectare of land, yet they produce an estimated 85% of the country’s food. Kyari described them as the backbone of food security and said supporting them is critical to achieving the 25 million tonne goal.

To do this, government will distribute about 2 million bags of agricultural inputs through registered farm aggregators. The input package will be supported by improved seeds, weather-based advisory services, and timely distribution to ensure farmers plant at the right time.

A Guaranteed Minimum Price mechanism is also being introduced to protect farmers from post-harvest exploitation by middlemen. On fertilizer, the Ministry says it remains on track to deliver 1.1 million metric tonnes in 2026, equivalent to about 22 million bags, to ensure crops are adequately nourished.

Food inflation has been one of the biggest economic pressures on Nigerian households since the removal of the petrol subsidy and naira unification in July 2023. At its peak in early 2025, food inflation exceeded 40% year-on-year, pushing the cost of basic staples beyond the reach of many families.

The Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Aliyu Abdullahi, noted that Nigeria needs at least 25 million tonnes of maize annually to meet national demand alone. He added that government interventions are already yielding results, with prices of major food commodities dropping by about 50% nationwide in recent months.

The Federal Government has prioritized three value chains for immediate scale-up: rice, maize, and wheat. These crops form the core of the Nigerian diet and also account for a significant portion of the country’s food import bill. By targeting them, officials hope to create income opportunities for millions of smallholder farmers while reducing pressure on foreign exchange.

The underlying logic is supply-driven. By putting financing, inputs, and market guarantees directly into the hands of smallholders, government expects to see a surge in harvests that will saturate local markets and force prices downward.

For AgricNews Digest readers, the 25 million tonne target opens clear pathways for participation. Input suppliers, farm aggregators, agro-processors, and storage operators all have a role to play in the new framework. Cooperatives and MSMEs that align early with the Renewed Hope Smallholder Financing Programme will be best positioned to access inputs, credit, and guaranteed offtake.

If executed effectively, this intervention could mark a turning point. Instead of managing scarcity, Nigeria would be managing abundance. And for millions of consumers, that abundance should mean one thing: food that is available