AFC Backs $7 Billion Dangote Fertiliser Push to Reshape Africa’s Food Security

By Dayo Thomas

Africa Finance Corporation has thrown its weight behind Dangote Industries in a $7 billion expansion that will more than double Nigeria’s urea output and plant a new flagship fertiliser facility in Ethiopia. The deal, unveiled this week, is set to lift Nigeria’s production capacity from 3 million to 9 million metric tonnes per annum, while the Ethiopian plant will add another 3 million metric tonnes. Combined, the projects will make Dangote one of the largest single-site urea producers globally and shift the balance of Africa’s fertiliser trade.

For Aliko Dangote, the investment goes beyond tonnage. He framed the expansion as a direct intervention in Africa’s hunger equation, saying it will “strengthen Africa’s food security, support agricultural productivity, and deepen the continent’s industrial base.” The timing is strategic. With global supply chains still rattled by the US-Iran conflict and freight costs spiking, African farmers have seen input prices soar. By scaling domestic production, Dangote aims to insulate growers from external shocks and cut the continent’s reliance on imports from Russia, the Middle East, and China.

AFC President Samaila Zubairu put the gap in stark numbers. Africa’s 1.5 billion people consume just 6 million tonnes of urea annually. India, with a similar population, uses 40 million tonnes. China tops 50 million. “Closing that gap is not a choice. It is a necessity if we want to feed ourselves,” Zubairu said. The AFC sees the deal as a cornerstone of its food sovereignty agenda, betting that affordable, locally made fertiliser will unlock yield gains across maize, rice, and wheat belts from Kaduna to Oromia.

The expansion also signals a pivot to export. With Nigeria’s domestic demand estimated at under 2 million tonnes, the new volumes are designed for regional markets and beyond. If executed, the project would turn West Africa from a net importer into a supplier, giving countries like Ghana, Mali, and Burkina Faso access to cheaper inputs and reducing dollar outflows. For Nigeria, it cements a shift from crude oil dependence to agro-industrial export — a core plank of the Tinubu administration’s economic diversification push.

Construction timelines and financing structure were not disclosed, but AFC’s backing gives the project significant credibility with other development financiers. For farmers watching pepper hit ₦5,000 per basket and seed companies like Seed Co battling banditry on 1000-hectare farms, the promise is clear: more fertiliser, closer to home, at prices that make commercial farming viable again.