IMF Warns Gulf War Could Deepen Africa’s Hunger Crisis as Food Prices and Fertilizer Costs Surge

Dayo Thomas

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the widening Gulf conflict threatens to reverse Sub-Saharan Africa’s fragile economic recovery and push millions more into acute food insecurity, with Nigeria among the most exposed. In a new outlook and in comments tied to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, the Fund said prolonged fighting is already driving up energy and fertilizer prices, squeezing household budgets, and threatening next season’s harvests across import-dependent nations.

Abebe Aemro Selassie, IMF Director of the African Department, said the region entered 2026 on its strongest footing in a decade, with 4.5% growth in 2025 and inflation easing to about 3.5%. But that momentum is now at risk. A prolonged conflict could inflate commodity prices, trigger capital flight, and force abrupt fiscal adjustments in countries with large refinancing needs.

The IMF estimates that in a severe scenario, regional output this year could fall 0.6% below pre-war forecasts, with oil importers suffering the most. Inflation could surge by an additional 2.4 percentage points. Food insecurity “looms large,” Selassie said, because the region remains acutely vulnerable to food-price shocks, and the war has already driven up fertilizer and shipping cost

The warning comes as the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises reports that 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025. Two famines were declared last year — in Gaza and Sudan — and 1.4 million people faced catastrophic conditions in Haiti, Mali, Gaza, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen. The report projects that conflict, drought and shrinking aid will keep global hunger at critical levels in 2026, with food insecurity expected to worsen in some of the world’s most fragile countries.

Alvaro Lario, head of the UN International Fund for Agricultural Development, said the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has added to the alarm. Even if the conflict ended immediately, food price shocks and inflation would still hit in the next six months because of energy and fertilizer trade disruption.

The Gulf conflict is choking a critical artery for fertilizer. Shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-quarter of global ammonia trade and more than a third of seaborne urea. About 80% of fertilizer used across sub-Saharan Africa is imported, often at higher prices than Europe due to freight and logistics.

Since the war began, global urea prices have surged and supply constraints are tightening. The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that even a 10% reduction in fertilizer availability could cut maize, rice and wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa by up to 25%, potentially triggering food inflation of up to 8% on the continent. Africa’s smallholder farmers, who produce nearly 70% of the region’s food, are most exposed because they lack cash to secure supplies early.

The United Nations Development Programme estimates that if oil and gas production remains disrupted for weeks and prices stay high for months, nearly 32.5 million people could be pushed into poverty. About half of that increase would be concentrated in 37 energy-importing countries across the Gulf, Africa, Asia and small island states. UNDP administrator Alexander De Croo called it “development in reverse,” noting that many being pushed into poverty are people who had only recently escaped it.

To blunt the impact, UNDP recommends targeted, temporary cash transfers totaling about $6 billion, plus subsidies or vouchers for electricity or cooking gas. It cautioned against blanket subsidies that benefit wealthier households.

The IMF’s “bottom-left quadrant” of risk includes countries dependent on imported oil with stretched government finances. Egypt faces surging fuel and food costs, a 9% slump in the pound, and nearly $30 billion in debt payments due. Tourism and remittances from the Gulf are also at risk. Nigeria and other oil importers face similar pressure as fuel prices feed into transport, food production, and household inflation.

The World Bank has already cut its 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.1%, down from 4.4%, citing the Middle East war’s impact on fuel and fertilizer costs. Debt-servicing costs have doubled since 2017 to about 18% of revenues, with half of African countries at high risk of or already in debt distress.
The joint message from the IMF, World Bank and World Food Programme is blunt: sharp increases in oil, natural gas and fertilizer prices will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity, with the burden falling most heavily on low-income, import-dependent economies. Lario of IFAD said the era of temporary shocks is over. “We are no longer seeing just temporary shocks, but persistent shocks over time,” he said. “Food insecurity is not an isolated issue anymore, but is putting pressure on global stability.”

With 35.5 million children already acutely malnourished worldwide in 2025, including nearly 10 million with severe acute malnutrition, aid agencies warn that delayed action will cost lives and raise humanitarian costs. The IMF and UNDP are urging coordinated support, but warn that aid budgets are tightening as Western governments face rising debt and defense spending.