Philippines Warns of ‘Triple Shock’ Threatening Global Food Supply

Dayo Thomas

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. warned that the world’s food systems are being battered by a convergence of three destabilizing forces , climate volatility, animal disease outbreaks, and geopolitical conflict , creating a “triple shock” that makes food production and trade harder to manage than at any time in recent memory.

Speaking at a post-ministerial workshop in Manila on April 27, 2026, Tiu Laurel said the sector is being hit from all sides at once. Recurring El Niño and La Niña cycles have swung rainfall and temperatures across Asia, disrupting planting calendars and slashing yields for rice, corn, and other staples. At the same time, African swine fever and avian influenza continue to decimate livestock herds and restrict poultry trade. Layered over both are geopolitical shocks from the Ukraine war to the escalating Iran conflict that have fractured shipping lanes, driven up fuel and fertilizer costs, and triggered sudden export bans on key commodities.

“I guess we started on a negative note. In a sense, we are in the Wild West at this moment,” Tiu Laurel said. “I think it’s also the worst time to be the secretary of agriculture.” He noted that shocks used to arrive sequentially, but today they overlap and amplify each other.

The secretary added that COVID-19’s effects have not fully unwound. Port congestion, container imbalances, and labor shortages continue to make food systems brittle when new crises hit. Governments have repeatedly turned to export restrictions on rice, wheat, and palm oil to protect domestic supply, but those moves send price volatility cascading through global markets.